By: Anthony Jones
Here is the Best and Worst from Week 16.
NFL BEST Decision – LV vs DEN
With 13:49 remaining in the 4th quarter and leading by 1 point, the Raiders faced a 4th and 1 from the DEN 46-yard line. Coach Bisaccia’s decision to GO increased his team’s (pre-snap) win probability by +9%. Based on our Edj Power Indexes (EPIs) and the game state, a GO came with an expectation for the Raiders to go on to win the game 62% of the time, and a punt came with an expectation to win the game 53% of the time.
NFL WORST Decision – GB vs CLE
With 2:14 remaining in the 4th quarter and leading by 2 points, the Packers faced a 4th and 6 from the GB 42-yard line. Coach LaFleur’s decision to punt cost his team -12% in (pre-snap) win probability. Based on our EPIs and the game state, a punt came with an expectation for the Packers to go on to win the game 52% of the time, and a GO came with an expectation to win the game 64% of the time.
NFL BEST Play Execution – JAX vs NYJ
With 41 seconds remaining in the 4th quarter and trailing by 5 points, the Jaguars faced a 2nd and 10 from the NYJ 31-yard line. Jacksonville’s QB Trevor Lawrence scrambled left and ended up running. He was eventually pushed out of bounds at the NYJ 5-yard line. This 26-yard gain increased the Jaguars win probability by +33%, going from 35% to 68%.
NFL Worst Play Execution – DET vs ATL
With 39 seconds remaining in the 4th quarter and trailing by 4 points, the Lions faced a 1st and goal at the ATL 9-yard line. Detroit’s QB Tim Boyle threw an interception. This turnover cost the Lions -53% in win probability, going from 53% to less than 0.5% effectively ending the game for the Lions.
Bottom Line
In addition to X’s and O’s, football is a game of coaching decisions and player execution and it’s important to understand both in the context of their impacts on win probability. For more information about how coaches in the NFL, NCAA and High School levels are using our analytics to coach with confidence, visit www.edjvarsity.com.