This week we’ll look at the top five best and worst 4th down decisions from around the league and the plays with the biggest play execution swings.
Before jumping in, it’s important to keep a few things in mind; the analysis of these best/worst decision focus on the pre-snap component of 4th downs and whether the coach made the decision that gave his team the best chance to go on to win the game (i.e., GO, attempt a FG, or Punt). Play execution, on the other hand, looks at all downs and focuses on what actually happened during the play (i.e., the change in win probability between the start of the play and the end of the play).
Good decisions don’t always result in wins and bad decisions don’t always result in losses because of play execution. Understanding how decisions and play execution work together is a critical part of leveraging analytics.
Top 5 Best 4th down decisions
Top 5 Worst 4th down decisions
5 Biggest Play Execution Swings
Bottom Line
In addition to X’s and O’s, football is a game of coaching decisions and player execution and it’s important to understand both in the context of their impacts on win probability.
For more information about how coaches in the NFL, NCAA and High School levels are using our analytics to coach with confidence, visit www.edjvarsity.com.