Each week coaches around the country are faced with real-time critical calls. By evaluating how teams manage their win probability, you can learn how to optimize future decisions and give your team the best chance to win.
Let’s take a look at one of the best and worst decisions in Week 7, both from the Baltimore at Seattle game.
Best Decision – Baltimore
With 1:24 remaining in the 3rd quarter, 2 timeouts, and the score tied, the Ravens faced a 4th and 2 at the Seahawks 8-yard line. The Ravens chose to “GO”. Our Edj Power Indexes (EPI’s) have the Ravens ranked as one of the top rushing teams in the league and the Seahawks rush defense as slightly below league average. Based on these rankings and the game state, teams that “GO” (i.e. call a Run or Pass play) in this situation, go on to win the game 53.7% of the time. Teams that attempt a FG only go on to win 46.1% of the time. The Ravens are one of the most sophisticated users of advanced analytics and chose to “GO”. This decision increased their (pre-snap) win probability by +7.6% (53.7% – 46.1%). Decisions like these are part of why they beat the Seahawks and are atop of the AFC North.
Worst Decision – Seattle
With 12:55 remaining in the 4th quarter, 3 timeouts, and trailing by 7, the Seahawks faced a 4th and 4 from their own 44-yard line. The Seahawks chose to PUNT. Our EPI’s have the Seahawks ranked as one of the top passing teams in the league and the Ravens pass defense as slightly below league average. Based on these rankings and the game state, teams that PUNT only go on to win the game 22.9% of the time. Teams that “GO” (i.e. call a Run or Pass) go on to win the game 31.1% of the time. This decision cost the Seahawks -8.2% in (pre-snap) win probability. In fact, if the Seahawks had leveraged advanced analytics, their 3rd down play-calling strategy may have also changed because they understood that the “GO” was the optimal 4th down decision. Despite the decision and loss, the Seahawks are typically sound decision makers.
With analytics at your fingertips, you can quickly focus on play calling and making decisions with confidence.
The new EdjVarsity product is the first-ever advanced analytics product that enables coaches to quickly identify the optimal decision (GO, FIELD GOAL, or PUNT) to give their team the best chance to win the game.
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Images via USA Today Sports.