A wild Super Wildcard Weekend.
Best Decision – PIT vs CLE
With 3:01 remaining in the 3rd quarter and trailing the Browns by 19 points, the Steelers faced a 4th & Goal at the CLE 5-yard line. Coach Tomlin made the correct call by deciding to go for it. The decision increased the Steelers (pre-snap) win probability by +2%.
Our EdjSports Power Indexes (EPIs) had the Steelers offense at a disadvantage versus the CLE defense in the run-game (PIT #32 vs CLE #21) and the pass-game (PIT #30 vs CLE #23). Based on our EPIs and the game state, teams that go for it, go on to win the game 6% of the time and teams that attempt the FG, go on to win the game 4% of the time.
Despite facing longs odds of making a comeback, Coach Tomlin made the correct decision.
Worst Decision – TEN vs BAL
With 10:06 remaining in the 4TH quarter and trailing the Ravens by 4 points, the Titans faced a 4th and 2 at the BAL 40-yard line. And, in a call that will be talked about for a while, Coach Vrabel made an error by deciding to punt. The decision cost the Titans -14% in (pre-snap) win probability. This was a huge error – one of the biggest of the entire season!
Our EdjSports Power Indexes (EPIs) had this run-game match up as fairly even, with the Titans rush offense ranked as the league’s best (#1) versus the Ravens rush defense ranked above league average (#11). Based on our EPIs and the game state, teams that go for it, go on to win the game 37% of the time and teams that punt, go on to win the game 23% of the time.
Tough time to make an error like this.
Extra Point
EdjSports weekly column Risky Business by Frank Frigo: 4th Down Decisions Shape the Opening Weekend of the NFL Playoffs.
Notable High School Calls of the Week
Austin Westlake Chaparrals (TX) vs. North Shore Mustangs (TX)
With 1:43 left in regulation and trailing 17-21, Coach Dodge and the Chaparrals faced a 4th and 1 at the Mustangs 1-yard line. By deciding to go for the TD, Coach Dodge increased the Chaparral’s (pre-snap) win probability by +42%. The Chaparrals would go on to win the Texas semifinal playoff game 24-21.
Crosby Cougars (TX) vs. Liberty Hill Panthers (TX)
Leading 42-34 with 4:16 remaining in the 3rd quarter, Coach Prieto and the Cougars faced a 4th and 6 at the Panthers 17-yard line. By deciding to go for it instead of attempting a FG, Coach Prieto increased the Cougar’s (pre-snap) win probability by +5%. The Cougars would go on to win an absolute barnburner 62-61 in OT.
Great calls Coaches!
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Bottom Line
Every decision matters and it’s important to make the ones that give your team the best chance to win the game.